Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 4.358036 5.210137 6.156725 7.282256 8.579859 10.024584 11.750328
2025-03-16 2.902353 3.980781 5.319668 7.085373 9.331705 12.071401 15.640029
2025-03-23 2.235717 3.448372 5.100857 7.471289 10.730144 14.992017 20.914181
2025-03-30 1.713517 2.941194 4.759534 7.566130 11.687434 17.398864 25.764465
2025-04-06 1.333605 2.527921 4.436634 7.581515 12.472729 19.595764 30.501850
2025-04-13 1.051669 2.189882 4.142511 7.557141 13.147987 21.652901 35.185168
2025-04-20 0.935682 2.106905 4.236462 8.143465 14.806363 25.293472 42.482481
2025-04-27 0.794572 1.938253 4.143439 8.386504 15.916648 28.165695 48.821322
2025-05-04 0.689904 1.814517 4.104333 8.706101 17.171333 31.351539 55.871061
2025-05-11 0.571587 1.628687 3.907678 8.698250 17.839411 33.612017 61.577952
2025-05-18 0.451783 1.404014 3.586120 8.394806 17.925332 34.876441 65.707990
2025-05-25 0.350156 1.191722 3.245476 7.993223 17.766735 35.679513 69.084552
2025-06-01 0.287487 1.066115 3.080705 7.946297 18.311159 37.823636 75.026242
2025-06-08 0.230443 0.936699 2.879989 7.791025 18.625275 39.582198 80.437086
2025-06-15 0.209537 0.912815 2.938523 8.230941 20.206747 43.828130 90.614585
2025-06-22 0.178576 0.843567 2.862768 8.341731 21.099522 46.818401 98.667103
2025-06-29 0.149655 0.769512 2.756896 8.361235 21.792184 49.464311 106.236942
2025-07-06 0.124381 0.697930 2.641075 8.335715 22.377335 51.932554 113.613775
2025-07-13 0.119315 0.708047 2.773383 8.973574 24.534057 57.720172 127.708350
2025-07-20 0.105878 0.675740 2.766415 9.237805 25.844962 61.853520 138.795361
2025-07-27 0.095680 0.653899 2.788699 9.585007 27.383589 66.557160 151.255983
2025-08-03 0.080542 0.599749 2.689893 9.576498 28.060569 69.482409 160.318803
2025-08-10 0.063266 0.523122 2.491763 9.246898 27.907779 70.610827 165.801828